North Korea's Economic and Demographic Challenges
Dwindling Population Amid Economic Struggles
An Outlier in Global Trends
North Korea, a nation characterized by one of the world's poorest economies, is also facing a stark demographic decline. In 2022, its gross national income per capita stood at a mere $1100, placing it among the most underdeveloped countries globally.
Declining Fertility Rates
North Korea's population growth has witnessed a steady slowdown over the years. From its peak in the late 1960s and early 1970s at an estimated 3%, the fertility rate has plummeted to its current level of 1.9, well below the replacement level of 2.1. This decline indicates that the native population is projected to decline in the coming years.
Population Density and Growth Trends
As of 2023, North Korea has a population density of 217 people per square kilometer (563 people per square mile). It has experienced a significant population growth rate of 0.44% annually. However, this masks the underlying trend of a slowing growth rate, with estimates indicating that the population will reach its peak in 2037 at approximately 26.87 million, just over 1 million more than the current level.
United Nations Projections
According to current projections, North Korea's population decline may begin as early as 2034. This projection stems from the United Nations Population Fund's reported fertility rate of 1.8 for women and a total population of 26.2 million in 2023.
Implications for the Future
The declining population poses significant challenges for North Korea's future. Despite the relative youth of its population, unification with South Korea may not lead to population growth, as the fertility rates in both countries are below replacement levels. It remains to be seen how North Korea will navigate these economic and demographic headwinds in the years to come.
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